Yesterday
we were positioned at just below the 29th February swing
top which was also the same point for our swing chart to turn up and
confirm the market as long once again. By the close of the pit
session the market had comfortably pushed through to a new high of
1391 on the June contract. How can we now trade the start of
this new bull run?
Our
Gann analysis was once again correct. The market found support on
the crucial 50% pressure point of the previous run, a point that Gann
found to be most prevalent and always watched out for.
The
market has now made 5 days up which in itself appears
stronger than a simple retracement. But more importantly we saw the
29th
February top exceeded and as a direct result the swing chart
turned up signaling the long trend is now in play.
Our
short position was stopped out but with good reason – a change
in trend.
No
change to these considerations today other than that this was the
confirmed bottom of the down trend from 29th February to
the 6th March.
Time
The
swing bottom on the 6th
March is:-
90
solar degrees from 8thDecember
2011 top.
225
solar degrees from 23rd
July 2011 top.
Price
The
current swing bottom of 1338 is at the
50%
level of the December 2011 down run.
This
price vibration keeps us alert for the possibility of a change in
trend off the 1338 bottom.
Position
The
market has made a strong impulse wave from December 19th
to the 29th
February top. This is clearly an impulse and any move to the short
side would likely be a corrective wave and pattern. Being the case
we expect to see a possible ABC pattern.
The
market is also supported by the 50% pressure point of the previous
run on the 6th
March. The market has since moved up 5 trading days which shows
strength within the swing.
Pattern
The
daily swing charts is now confirmed long with the breaking of the
previous swing top of 1377.
Volatility/Volume
The
volume has has certainly increased on the 6th
March. This increased volume on a down bar is a very strong bullish
signal usually seen at points in trend change.
The
increased volume on recent days is now difficult to determine as a
result of the contract change over period
Summary
Trend
Direction
Daily
Trend:-
The
daily swing chart is confirmed as long. Technically speaking the
swings are to the long side now however further confirmation would be
a higher swing bottom.
Trend
Reversal
The
swing bottom of 1337 – however if this did occur the trend would be
read as undecided. No knew trades should be open if the market broke
this level.
Elliott
Wave Analysis
From
and Elliott Wave perspective we see the market structure unfolding as
follow:
We
have now seen the completion of the minor wave 4 down run. Minor
wave 5 up has now been confirmed and we anticipate this to be another
impulse wave over the next few weeks.
Trading
With
the swing chart confirming a long trend we look to enter the market
on the next pull back. This may occur in the next few days however
we will advise once the pull back has be made.
