The Bulls Are Back

Yesterday we were positioned at just below the 29^th February swing top which was also the same point for our swing chart to turn up and confirm the market as long once again. By the close of the pit session the market had comfortably pushed through to a new high of 1391 on the June contract. How can we now trade the start of this new bull run?

Our Gann analysis was once again correct. The market found support on the crucial 50% pressure point of the previous run, a point that Gann found to be most prevalent and always watched out for.

The market has now made 5 days up which in itself appears stronger than a simple retracement. But more importantly we saw the 29^th February top exceeded and as a direct result the swing chart turned up signaling the long trend is now in play.

Our short position was stopped out but with good reason – a change in trend.

Gann Analysis Consideration – Time, Price, Position, Pattern and Volatility.

No change to these considerations today other than that this was the confirmed bottom of the down trend from 29^th February to the 6^th March.

Time

The swing bottom on the 6^th March is:-

90 solar degrees from 8^thDecember 2011 top.

225 solar degrees from 23^rd July 2011 top.

Price

The current swing bottom of 1338 is at the

50% level of the December 2011 down run.

This price vibration keeps us alert for the possibility of a change in trend off the 1338 bottom.

Position

The market has made a strong impulse wave from December 19^th to the 29^th February top. This is clearly an impulse and any move to the short side would likely be a corrective wave and pattern. Being the case we expect to see a possible ABC pattern.

The market is also supported by the 50% pressure point of the previous run on the 6^th March. The market has since moved up 5 trading days which shows strength within the swing.

Pattern

The daily swing charts is now confirmed long with the breaking of the previous swing top of 1377.

Volatility/Volume

The volume has has certainly increased on the 6^th March. This increased volume on a down bar is a very strong bullish signal usually seen at points in trend change.

The increased volume on recent days is now difficult to determine as a result of the contract change over period

Summary

Trend Direction

Daily Trend:-

The daily swing chart is confirmed as long. Technically speaking the swings are to the long side now however further confirmation would be a higher swing bottom.

Trend Reversal

The swing bottom of 1337 – however if this did occur the trend would be read as undecided. No knew trades should be open if the market broke this level.

Elliott Wave Analysis

From and Elliott Wave perspective we see the market structure unfolding as follow:

We have now seen the completion of the minor wave 4 down run. Minor wave 5 up has now been confirmed and we anticipate this to be another impulse wave over the next few weeks.

Trading

With the swing chart confirming a long trend we look to enter the market on the next pull back. This may occur in the next few days however we will advise once the pull back has be made.